TUPOLEV 154 Incidents and accidents - why the plane crash that killed Polish President & 95 others?
Maybe Imechanica can start an investigation. I have collected some data from BBC, WSJ and Wikipedia. Tu-154 is not new to accidents, 66 serious accidents already. Some have been from mechanical problems (two cases prior to 2001). Is there also here a mechanical problem? Imechanica should play its role for first time as "wikipedia" investigation.
Plane
Crash May Strain Poland’s Ties With Russia

Sean Gallup/Getty Images
A portrait of President Lech Kaczynski of Poland lay
among a sea of candles and flowers outside the Presidential Palace in
Warsaw. More
Photos »
Regards
Prof. Michele Ciavarella, http://poliba.academia.edu/micheleciavarella
facebook: mike ciavarella
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=425540375175&ref=ts
skype:
micheleciavarella
Editor, ITALIAN SCIENCE DEBATE, www.sciencedebate.it
Associate
Editor, Ferrari MilleChili Journal, http://imechanica.org/node/7878
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2081143.stm
Tu-154: The backbone of Russian fleets
By Paul Duffy
Russian editor, Air Transport World
![]()
The Tupolev-154 has for more than a quarter of a
century been the backbone of Russia and the Soviet Union's air transport
system.

It has carried half the number of all passengers flown by Aeroflot and
its successors in that time, with that number peaking at 137 million per
year in 1990.
About 1,000 have been built, and many remain in service
in Russia.
The aircraft entered service in 1972 and was "modernised"
in 1986, with new engines and equipment to improve its fuel consumption
and flight operations.
The Chinese government decided in 2001 to withdraw the
Tu-154 fleet from its airlines and so this, and several others, were
sold back to Russia.
Difficult conditions
Since its service entry, some 28 Tu-154s have been lost
in accidents, a figure about normal for the quantity, years of service
and technology of the type.
The Tu-154 operates in regions with not very good air
traffic control and navigation equipment, and in very difficult weather
conditions.
The Tu-154 accidents include a number that have little
relation to the aircraft.
In 1982, an aircraft landing at Omsk in Russia in a heavy
snowstorm - normal for Russian winters - hit six snowploughs that had
not been told to leave the runway as the aircraft landed.
Freak accidents
About five have been shot down by enemy or terrorist
attacks in Lebanon, Georgia and Afghanistan during the civil wars in
those countries.
In 2001, a Tu-154 crashed into the Black Sea after being
hit by a Ukrainian missile fired during exercises.
One landed safely in a field after its cargo of
cigarettes caught fire but was completely burnt.
Another ran out of fuel five miles short of the runway
when the state airline of an almost bankrupt country decided to carry
less fuel from its base, where the price was high.
And Swiss air controllers have accepted full
responsibility for a mid-air collision between a Tu-154 and a cargo
plane in July 2002.
Few of the Tu-154 accidents appear to have involved
technical failure.
The aircraft is likely to remain in service in Russia and
former Soviet republics for another decade.
TUPOLEV 154 Incidents and
accidents (WIKIPEDIA)
There have been 66 serious flight incidents with Tu-154s, including
37 hull-losses with human fatalities. [18][19]
Six of those incidents resulted from terrorist or military action including an
accidental missile shootdown by Ukraine,
several from poor runway conditions in winter (including one which
struck snow
ploughs on the runway), cargo overloading by airlines in the lapse
of post-Soviet federal safety standards (several cases), and mid-air
collisions due to faulty air traffic control or mis-communication. Other
incidents have resulted from mechanical problems (two cases prior to
2001), running out of fuel on unscheduled extended route, pilot error,
and cargo fires. The Tu-154 has an average safety record considering its
length of service and heavy use in the most demanding conditions.[20]
- On 30 September 1975, a Malév flight on the Budapest to Beirut regular route was
allegedly shot down near the Lebanese coast, with the loss of 50
passengers and 10 crew. No official statement was ever made. - On 8 August 1980, a Tarom flight from Otopeni
International Airport, Bucharest
to Nouadhibou International
Airport, Nouadhibou, Mauritania
crashed into the Atlantic Ocean and broke in half 300 m (984 ft) from
the runway due to defective apparatus in the control tower at the Nouadhibou International
Airport. Only one passenger, an elderly woman suffering from heart
disease, died of a heart attack. The other 151 passengers and 16 crew
escaped.[21] - On 11 October 1984, Aeroflot Flight 3352 crashed when approaching Omsk Airport, 169 passengers and 5 crew members
out of 170 passengers and 9 crew members, and 4 more on the ground were
killed. - On 10 July 1985, Aeroflot Flight 7425 stalled and entered an
unrecoverable spin at 11,600 m (38,000 ft), 200 were killed. - On 8 February 1993, an Iran Air Tours Tupolev Tu-154 was departing
on a non-scheduled flight from Mehrabad
International Airport, Tehran, to Khoram Dareh when it collided with an
Iranian Air Force Sukhoi Su-24 that was on approach. All twelve
crew members and 119 passengers were killed.[22] - On 6 June 1994, China Northwest Airlines Flight
2303 broke up in mid-air and crashed near Xi'an,
China. A maintenance error was responsible. All 160 people on board
died. - On 29 August 1996, Vnukovo Airlines Flight 2801.
Departing from Vnukovo Airport outside of Moscow. Crashed in
Operafjellet (Opera Mountain) on Svalbard.
All 141 (128 passengers) lost their lives.[23] - On 13 September 1997, a Luftwaffe
Tu-154M (ex-East German Air Force) collided in mid-air with an USAF C-141 off the coast of Namibia, Africa. Both
crews (24 on the Tu-154 and 9 on the C-141) perished.[24] - On 4 July 2000, MALÉV Hungarian Airlines Flight 262, a chartered Tu-154
landed on its belly in Thessaloniki,
Greece because the crew had not extended the landing gear. The plane skidded 400 m (1,312 ft)
on the runway and became airborne as the pilots applied throttle. The
plane landed successfully on its wheels.[25]
There were no injuries, but it was deemed uneconomical to repair the
aircraft. - On 4 July 2001, Vladivostok Air Flight 352 from Yekaterinburg
to Vladivostok crashed while on approach into Irkutsk,
an intermediate stop, killing all 145 people onboard. The cause of
accident was pilot error resulting in exceeding the safe angle of attack
and the subsequent stall. - On 4 October 2001, Siberia Airlines Flight 1812
from Tel
Aviv to Novosibirsk crashed into the Black
Sea, probably shot down by an Ukrainian
surface to air
missile fired during a training exercise. All 66 passengers and 12
crew were killed. - On 12 February 2002, Iran Air Tours Flight 956: The aircraft hit
high ground in the Sefid Kouh mountains outside Khorramabad,
Iran while descending for Khorramabad. All twelve crew members and 107
passengers were killed.[26] - On 1 July 2002, Bashkirian
Airlines Flight 2937 collided with a DHL
Boeing
757.[27]
The accident was caused by problems with the air traffic control system
in Zurich and erroneous instructions given by the air traffic
controller on duty, which conflicted with orders given to them by their Traffic Collision Avoidance
System that the controller didn't know about. Had both planes
listened to TCAS, the accident would have most likely been avoided. - On 24 August 2004, Sibir Airlines
Flight 1047 from Moscow to Sochi crashed after being bombed by an
on-board Chechen suicide bomber, killing all 46 people on the aircraft.
This happened almost simultaneously with a similar bomb explosion on Volga-Aviaexpress
airlines TU-134 flight from Moscow to Volgograd. - On 22 August 2006, while en route from the Russian Black Sea resort
of Anapa
to Saint Petersburg, Pulkovo Airlines
Flight 612 crashed near the Russian border over eastern Ukraine in
an attempt to fly through a weather front. All 160 passengers (including
45 children) and 10 crew were killed. - On 1 September 2006, Iran Air Tours Flight 945 skidded off the runway as it was
landing in Mashhad International Airport
and caught fire after a tire blew during landing. The aircraft was
carrying 147 passengers, 29 of them died.[citation needed] - On 15 July 2009, Caspian Airlines Flight 7908
with 153 passengers and 15 crew onboard and traveling from Tehran to Yerevan
crashed 16 minutes after take-off near the Iranian city of Qazvin,
killing all people onboard. Police reported that witnesses saw the
aircraft's tail on fire as it circled and attempted an emergency
landing. The crash, in an agricultural field, left a path of wreckage
200 yards long. Authorities were able to locate two out of the three
aircraft flight recorders, although they do appear to
be damaged.[28][29] - On 24 January 2010, Taban Air Flight 6437 caught fire upon landing at Mashhad International Airport
in Iran. The plane had initially left Abadan, in south-west Iran on
Saturday, but bad weather had forced it to land in the city of Isfahan
for the night. After taking off again on Sunday, the captain was forced
to make an emergency landing at Mashhad International Airport
because of a passenger's ill health. The aircraft suffered serious
damage as it landed, losing its undercarriage
and a wing.
46 people were injured in the incident.[30][31] - On 10 April 2010, a Tupolev 154M Lux, serial number 101 of the Polish Air Force, 36th Special Aviation Regiment),
carrying the Polish President Lech Kaczyński, his wife, and a large number of high
ranking government and military officials crashed whilst making the
fourth attempt to land in fog at Smolensk-North air base
in Russia, killing all 89 passengers and 8 crew aboard.[32]The
crash, which was among the worst disasters in Polish history by
death-toll (and also one of the worst accidents of the Tu-154), is
currently under investigation. Russian military airfield management
suggested alternate airfields in Minsk and Moscow due to poor weather.[33][34]
By IRA
IOSEBASHVILI and DANIEL
MICHAELS
Investigators seeking the cause of a
plane crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and a
delegation including dozens of high-level officials on Saturday are
likely to focus on both the Tupolev 154 jetliner and the pilots'
actions.
The Russian-made plane, which was 20 years old, had been overhauled
in December at a Russian aviation facility and had flown relatively few
hours.
Mixed Record
Recent
crashes involving Tupolev 154 jetliners.
The Tu-154, which
crashed outside Smolensk, Russia, was on its second attempt to land amid
heavy fog. Investigators will seek to understand why the crew tried
bring the plane down in such unfavorable conditions.
Russian media reported that the airplane's pilot ignored warnings to
abort his landing outside of Smolensk and land instead in Minsk or
Moscow. The jet crashed about a kilometer short of the runway at the
Smolensk-Severnyi military airport, shortly before 11 a.m. Moscow time.
The airport lacked modern radio-navigation systems that help guide
planes in poor visibility, according to the Polish newspaper
Rzeczpospolita.
Polish media reported Saturday that the crew had reported problems
before trying to land, although the reports weren't officially
confirmed. If correct, the issue is likely to become central to the
investigation.
A Russian official said the pilot disobeyed air-traffic controllers'
instructions to level off when controllers saw the jetliner, almost one
mile from the airport, was descending too quickly to reach the runway.
"The controller ordered the crew to return to horizontal flight, and
when the crew did not fulfill the instruction, ordered them several
times to land at another airport," Lieutenant General Alexander
Alyoshin, deputy chief of Russia's air force, told Russian state TV.
"Nonetheless the crew continued to descend. Unfortunately, this ended
tragically."
View Full Image

Jacek Turczyk/European Pressphoto Agency
Russian special services secured the area
after a Polish government plane crashed near the airport in Smolensk,
Russia.
Polish government officials didn't
immediately comment on the Russian allegations of pilot error.
The Tupolev was operated by the Polish Air Force. LOT Polish
Airlines, the country's state-owned commercial carrier, replaced all its
Soviet-made jetliners—including Tu-154s—in the 1990s.
During the presidential plane's overhaul in December, its engines
underwent thorough maintenance, and the craft's interior was completely
refitted and modernized, said Alexei Gusev, director of Aviakor, an
aircraft plant outside of Samara.
"The plane flew fine, there were no complaints about it," Mr. Gusev
said. "I remember the pilots who test-flew it after the overhaul, and
they were happy with its performance."
The aircraft had logged roughly 5,000 hours of flying time in about
1,800 flights, Mr. Gusev said. "This is not a lot at all for this
airplane. As a rule, airplanes serving top officials do not see many
hours of usage," he said.
![[PLANECRASH]](http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-IC746_PLANEC_NS_20100410163845.gif)
Designed by Soviet engineers and first flown in
1968, the Tu-154 has seen heavy use in Russia and other former Soviet
countries. More than 920 of the three-engine planes have been built,
although production slowed sharply after the end of the Soviet Union due
to economic problems there and the plane's high operating costs. Its
engines consume more fuel than similar-sized Western-built jetliners and
require more maintenance.
Still, the aircraft is extremely hardy. It is designed to operate off
of gravel and packed earth air fields and resist the extreme cold often
found in Russia's northern climes. Aeroflot, Russia's state airline,
announced the retirement of its TU-154 fleet at the start of this year.
The airplane had also served Poland's two previous presidents, Lech
Walesa and Aleksander Kwasniewski. In 2008, the airplane was delayed in
Ulan Bator airport for two days when its steering mechanism broke down.
Last June, an Iranian Tu-154 crashed in the country's northwest,
killing all 168 people on board. A Russian Tu-154 also went down near
Donetsk, Ukraine in August 2006, killing 170.
Poland has suffered several air crashes involving top officials and
Soviet-built aircraft, which the country was forced to use until
breaking free of Soviet domination in 1989. In 2003, then-prime minister
Leszek Miller was seriously injured when his Russian Mi-8 helicopter
crashed.
In March 1980, a Soviet-built Ilyushin-62 passenger jet operated by
LOT and flying from New York crashed on landing in Warsaw, killing all
87 people onboard.
And in an accident many Poles are likely to see as a parallel to
Saturday's crash, Poland's prime minister-in-exile and leader of
Western-oriented Polish forces in World War II, General Wladyslaw
Sikorski—a figure admired by followers of late President Kaczynski—died
when his U.S.-made B-24 crashed into the Mediterranean Sea on a flight
from Gibraltar to London.
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1986 Tupolev Tu-134 crash Killing Mozambican president ...
1986 Mozambican Tupolev
Tu-134 crash Killing Mozambican
president Samora
Machel and 43 other occupants
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Mozambican Presidential Jet
Accident summary
Date
October 19, 1986
Type
Controlled flight into terrain
Site
25°54′58″S 31°57′19″E / 25.91611°S 31.95528°E / -25.91611; 31.95528Coordinates:
25°54′58″S 31°57′19″E / 25.91611°S 31.95528°E / -25.91611; 31.95528
Mbuzini, Lebombo Mountains, South
Africa
Passengers
35[1]
Crew
9[1]
Fatalities
34[1]
Survivors
10[1]
Aircraft type
Tupolev Tu-134A-3
Operator
Mozambique Air
Tail number
C9-CAA
Flight origin
Maputo, Mozambique
Last stopover
Mbala
Airport (MMQ),[1]
Zambia
Destination
Maputo International Airport (MPM), Mozambique
The Mozambican presidential Tupolev Tu-134A-3 aircraft crashed just inside South African territory on October 19, 1986. The
aircraft was carrying Mozambican president Samora
Machel and 43 other occupants on a flight from Mbala
in Zambia
to the Mozambican capital Maputo when it crashed 35 nm
(65 km) west of its destination at Mbuzini
in the Lebombo Mountains.[2]
Nine passengers and one crew member survived the crash, but President
Machel and 33 others died, including ministers and officials of the
Mozambique government.
While there was widespread suspicion—both nationally and
internationally[2]—that
the South African government was implicated in the crash, no conclusive
evidence to this effect has emerged.
Contents
[hide]
confusion
response
investigation
investigation
beacon
Mozambican investigation
Louw
Graça Machel's accusations
external links
//
[edit] Political background
[edit] 1984
South Africa's State Security Council (SSC) meeting in January 1984 minuted a
discussion of their Mozambican working group, which included General
Jac Buchner and Major Craig Williamson, where assistance to RENAMO was
discussed as a means of overthrowing the FRELIMO
government of Mozambique. The TRC
later included this minute as circumstantial evidence in their
inconclusive report.[3]
On March 16, 1984, the Nkomati Accord was signed at Komatipoort
between South Africa and Mozambique. A clause in this agreement
prohibited support of third-party resistance groups. In his commentary
on the accord, South African foreign minister Pik
Botha admitted in an SABC television
interview that South Africa had offered limited support to RENAMO in the
past.
[edit] 1986
On October 7, 1986 Mozambique was sharply criticised by South African
general Magnus Malan for allegedly allowing terrorists
to enter South Africa from its territory.[4]
The Frontline States convened an emergency
meeting in Maputo on October 12, to address an incursion of Renamo
operatives from Malawi. South Africa and Malawi's Banda were denounced as waging a terrorist campaign against
Mozambique. Malan replied on October 15 by warning the Front Line
leaders that they would share the consequences of ANC terrorist attacks.[5]
Mozambique later cited Malan's remarks as evidence to implicate South
Africa in the air crash.[6]
A former military intelligence (MI) officer "Ben" alleged at the 1998
TRC
hearings that Pik Botha and a number of high-ranking security
officials met on October 18, 1986 at Skwamans, a secret security police
base shared with MI operatives halfway between Mbuzini and Komatipoort.
He said the meeting broke up later that day and Botha departed in a
small aircraft.[3]
On Sunday, October 19, three Front Line leaders, Machel, Kenneth Kaunda and Eduardo dos Santos met at Mbala,
Zambia, to confront Zairian president Mobutu Sésé Seko concerning his channeling of funds to UNITA, which
was in alliance with South Africa.[5]
[edit] Return flight
On the afternoon of October 19, 1986, President Samora
Machel returned from the Zambian
meeting on the presidential Tupolev Tu-134A aircraft, a personal gift from the
Soviets.[2]
The aircraft, with registration number C9-CAA, was approaching Maputo in
the first hour after sunset and the flight crew were in relaxed
discussion with one another, as revealed by the cockpit voice recorder.
[edit] A 37º turn
Maputo
Crash Site
Crash site near the converging borders of
Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa
Around 19:10, 11 minutes prior to impact, at a height of 19,000 feet
(5,800 m) the presidential aircraft made a 37º turn to the right, and
headed in the wrong direction of Matsapa airfield, Swaziland.[3][7][8][9][10]
The navigation facility for this turn was never determined. Nor did the
crew identify the facility to one another or to Maputo air traffic control. Rather than continuing over
the Mozambican plain to Maputo’s airport near sea
level, C9-CAA then headed towards the Lebombo Mountains region on the South African border.
The Soviet investigation team would later offer this
deviation as evidence that the crew were led astray by a possible
‘decoy navigation beacon’.[3][7]
The Mozambican investigation team then suggested a temporary South
African military camp, 150m from the crash site, as the likely source
and claimed there was an electrical generator present. South
Africa in turn identified the tents in question as a volleyball facility
for soldiers.[7]
[edit] Disorientation
and confusion
Maputo air traffic control was said[7][11]
to have cleared the aircraft for a descent to 3,000 ft, the published safe altitude for approaches to
Maputo.[10]
While descending the pilot, Yuri Novodran, was determined (by the South
African-appointed Margo Commission) to have taken a rigid view as to
the location of the airport and declined the indirect approach suggested by his crew.
Novodran, unable to discern the runway lights at Maputo International Airport,
decided they were not switched on and informed the air traffic
controller: "Check your runway lights". The controller apparently
misinterpreted this as "I check your lights" or "I see you",[7]
and continued to clear the aircraft for landing. The Margo Commission
concluded this was another alleged instance of pilot error.[citation needed]
[edit] Descent and impact
At 19:19:55, 1:45 minutes before impact, the aircraft descended to
under 3,000 feet (910 m). The Margo Commission concluded this was before
clearance for landing was received. The aircraft continued to descend
at regular intervals, at an average rate of 8 feet a second, for a
direct approach to the runway without visual contact.[2]
The ground
proximity warning system was activated, and sounded for 32 seconds,
but was ignored by the crew. Believing themselves to be over the
Mozambican plain, the descent continued with landing
gear and flaps still retracted.[2][10]
The Soviet investigation team later declared the crew's disregarding of
the alarm as reasonable.[citation needed]
At 19:21:39, the aircraft made controlled impact in hilly
terrain at 230 knots (430 km/h), at an altitude of 2,187 feet (667 m)
a.s.l. and 150m into South African territory.[2]
The point of impact is near the hamlet of Mbuzini in the Lebombo Mountains. The first witnesses at the crash scene
were reported[who?] to have been
Mozambican soldiers. Captain Marques’s Boeing C9-BAA which approached
Maputo 14 minutes behind C9-CAA, apparently encountered no confusing radio beacon.[7]
According to the next day’s SABC news report,
and based on injuries sustained,[5]
president Machel died instantly when the aircraft crashed. Besides
Machel, his private secretary Muradali, possible successor Fernando
Honwana, transport minister Alcantara Santos, marxist scholar and
diplomat Aquino de Bragança and photo-journalist Daniel Maquinasse were
among the dead.[5]
In all, thirty-four occupants died while 10 survived.
[edit] Investigations
[edit] South African response
A Tupolev Tu-134
South Africa’s minister of Law and Order, Louis la Grange, contacted
South African foreign minister, Pik Botha, at 4:30 on October 20, 1986
to inform him of the crash. A Beeld
newspaper report, however, claimed it was the SAP.
La Grange revealed that ‘30 to 40 persons’ may have died which may
include president Samora Machel and suggested ‘very sensitive handling’
of the situation. Pik Botha relayed the information to State President P.W. Botha and together they decided that Pik Botha
should visit the scene as a matter of urgency.
In accordance with the South African Air Control Act, aircraft
accidents are required to be investigated by the SA Department of
Transport. Thus Pik Botha consulted Hendrik Schoeman of the Department
of Transport, once Machel’s death was confirmed. After Botha and
Schoeman had visited the crash site, Botha cited special circumstances
and other international protocols as reasons to become
involved.[6]
[edit] On site investigation
The Mozambican government was informed of the situation and invited
to send representatives to the border town of Komatipoort.
Mozambican minister Sérgio Vieira joined Pik Botha at Komatipoort from
where they departed by SAAF helicopter. The helicopter was
only able to transport one of two members of the Civil Aviation Bureau,
Mr. Pieter de Klerk, who was asked to offer guidance on site.
On arrival, Mozambican minister Sérgio Vieira asked for the documents
that were taken from the aircraft to be handed to him. The SA
commissioner of police, Johann Coetzee, had already made copies of
these, and the documents were transferred to Vieira. The SABC was permitted
to take photos at the scene and to do on location reports, the
only news agency enabled to do so. The South African government claimed
that the Civil Aviation Bureau had no complaints about procedures
followed at the site. Nonetheless, the flight data and cockpit voice recorders were removed
by the South African Police, who later refused
to release them for independent inspection.[6][7][12]
[edit] South African
investigation
On the day after the crash, October 20, Mozambique and South Africa
agreed that an international board of inquiry should be established with
the participation of the International Civil
Aviation Organization. The Chicago Convention
determined that South Africa, as the state on whose territory the crash
had occurred, would head the investigation. South Africa was obliged to
work in partnership with the state of ownership (Mozambique) and the
state of manufacture (Soviet Union).
Twelve days following the crash, at 18:00 on October 31, 1986, Pik
Botha convened an interdepartmental government meeting, nominally to
discuss progress.
After the meeting, Pik Botha made press announcements to the effect
that the aircraft was fitted with antiquated instruments and that tests
on two dead crew members revealed excess alcohol content in their
bloodstream.[5][7]
On a November 6 press conference Botha in addition announced that a
document retrieved from the plane revealed a Mozambican-Zimbabwean plot
to topple the Malawian government.[5]
Pik Botha was reported to have told Lothar Neethling of the SAP to withhold the flight data– and cockpit voice recorders from
inspection by both international and Civil Aviation Bureau
investigators.[6][7][12]
Soviet and Mozambican investigators were thus placed at a disadvantage
in their investigations.
[edit] Joint investigations
Director Renee van Zyl of the South African Civil Aviation Bureau
then served a writ
on Botha and the SAP, and received the two recorders unceremoniously
at 15:45 on November 11, 1986. The three international teams signed a
protocol of secrecy on November 14, 1986[7]
as Botha’s selective announcements were straining relations[5]
between the teams and governments. This allowed the teams to agree on
the procedures they were to follow.
Nevertheless Botha reported to Beeld
newspaper on November 24, 1986 that he had listened to Maputo air traffic control’s recordings and studied a
transcription of them. These he acquired from Foreign Affair’s
representative in the South African team.
[edit] Margo Commission
The South African government established the Margo Commission,
chaired by judge Cecil Margo, to investigate the accident. Pik
Botha realised that negative international opinion was escalating around
the matter and decided to appoint three international members of high
standing to the commission.[6]
They were:
pilot, astronaut and president of Eastern Air Lines
Branch
Edward Eveleigh, former Lord Justice of Appeal and member of the British Privy
Council
[edit] Findings
The Margo commission’s findings were based mainly on the flight
recorders, testimony by South African officials and the technical report
submitted by the SA investigation team. The Soviet investigation team
refused to take part in any public testimony and the Mozambican team
also withdrew at the last moment.
The flight recorders gave excellent results, the cockpit voice recorder especially
revealing much about the interactions between crew members. The
investigation was however delayed for several weeks by South African police general Lothar Neethling's refusal to hand the recorders over
after he had seized them at the scene of the crash.[7]
The commission nevertheless concluded that:[1]
and fully serviced
procedural requirements for an instrument let-down approach,
having contact with the minimum assigned altitude,
Warning Proximity alarm."
The Margo report was accepted by the International Civil
Aviation Organization.
[edit] Claims of a decoy
beacon
Suspicion of a beacon in the Lebombos was first expressed by South
African helicopter pilots on the morning following the crash, followed
by a similar suggestion in an anonymous call to UPI by a supposed SAAF officer, a day later.[5]
The pilots' speculative remark was revealed to Sérgio Vieira,
Mozambique's minister of security, in a rash comment by South African
police commissioner Johann Coetzee.[5]
Neither the Mozambican or Russian teams however, nor any witness
testimony given, supplied any evidence or direct allegation concerning a
secondary beacon to the Margo commission.[2]
The Margo commission's draft report then proposed Matsapa airfield's VOR, combined with pilot
error, as playing a likely role in the trajectory followed. The
USSR delegation disputed this, saying the signal was obscured by
mountains.[2]
A breakdown in communications followed, causing Gen. Earp of the South African Air Force to authorise military
pilots to penetrate Mozambique airspace
to test the Matsapa theory.[2]
They returned with confirmation, though the final report relied on
additional testimonies of commercial pilots who flew on C9-CAA's track.
They likewise confirmed clear VOR signals from Matsapa.[2]
Mozambican pilot Dias, who supported the Matsapa theory, illustrated
his interpretation of events to Mozambican officials on a flight from Lisbon to
Maputo.[9][10]
Mozambican authorities however remained unconvinced and suspended air
controller de Jesus on May 5, 1998, for allegedly having been bribed to
tamper with Maputo airport's beacon on the night of the crash.[13]
[edit] Other investigations
[edit] Soviet report
The Soviet delegation issued a minority report saying that their
expertise and experience had been undermined by the South Africans. They
advanced the theory of complicity of South African security forces and
that the plane had been intentionally diverted by a false navigational beacon signal, using a
technology provided by Israeli intelligence agents. The Soviet report
focused on the 37 degrees' right turn that led the plane into the hills
of Mbuzini. It rejected the finding of the Margo Commission, saying that
the crew had read the ground proximity warning as false since they
believed themselves to be in flat terrain as they approached landing.[citation needed]
[edit]
Independent
Mozambican investigation
Mozambique contracted an independent and highly qualified Canadian
(or British) investigator by the name of Young.[when?]
Relying on flight plots by Mozambican expert Caiger, Young questioned
the false radio beacon theory as an explanation for the wrong
trajectory. In his opinion a false VOR beacon operating on the same frequency
would have directed the aircraft on a curvilinear path. This was
contradicted by the straight paths recorded for both the C9-CAA
presidential aircraft and the C9-BAA aircraft which followed minutes
afterward.[2][7]
[edit] TRC report 2001
Main article: Truth and
Reconciliation Commission (South Africa)
Twelve years after the crash, when the apartheid regime had been
replaced by a democratically-elected South African government, a special
investigation into Machel's death was carried out in 2001 by the Truth and
Reconciliation Commission (TRC).
The TRC investigation was criticized[who?] for taking
place in
camera and without any aviation specialist being present. The
testimony was further led by a prominent radio journalist rather than a
judge. The TRC's investigation did not find conclusive evidence to
support or refute either of the earlier reports. Nonetheless, some
pieces of circumstantial evidence collected by the TRC lead to questions
being raised[who?] about a number
of the Margo Commission's findings:
Botha and a number of high-ranking security officials held a meeting at
Skwamans, a secret security police base shared with MI operatives
halfway between Mbuzini and Komatipoort,
on the day before the crash. They left late that night in a small plane
and some, including Pik Botha, returned there after the crash.[3]
to be under radar
surveillance.) However, no warning that the plane was off course or in
South African airspace was given to the aircraft.[5]
1984 indicate that the Mozambican working
group, including General Jac Buchner and Major Craig Williamson, discussed how to help RENAMO overthrow
the FRELIMO government of Mozambique.
The TRC report concluded that the questions of a false beacon and the absence of a warning from the
South African authorities require "further investigation by an
appropriate structure".[3]
A police video in the TRC's possession shows South African foreign
minister Pik Botha telling journalists at the crash site that
President Samora Machel and others killed in the crash were his and
President P.W. Botha's "very good friends", and
that their deaths were therefore a tragedy for South Africa.
[edit] Confession by Hans Louw
In January 2003, the Sowetan Sunday World reported that an
apartheid era killer and former CCB member, Hans Louw,
serving a 28-year term at Baviaanspoort Prison near Pretoria,
had confessed to participating in a plot to kill Machel. A false radio navigational beacon would have been used to lure
the aircraft off course, with Louw forming part of an alleged backup
team to shoot the aircraft down if it didn't crash.[14][15][16]
The newspaper also alleged that another of the plotters, former
Rhodesian Selous Scout, Edwin Mudingi, supported Louw's
claim.[17]
However, after an investigation by the Scorpions,[12][18]
a South African special police unit, it was reported in July 2003 and
in October 2008 that they could find no evidence for South African
complicity.[7][19]
[edit] 2006 inquiry
South African minister of Safety and Security, Charles Nqakula announced on February 2, 2006 that the
Machel death crash inquiry would be reopened. He told reporters in
parliament that all of South Africa's law enforcement agencies were
expected to be involved in the probe, in co-operation with their
Mozambican counterparts.[20][21]
[edit] Aftermath
[edit] 1996 Anniversary
A Mbuzini wreath laying ceremony on October 17 was attended by Graça
Machel and addressed by Nelson Mandela. Mandela declared the initial
simple memorial a South African national monument and hailed Machel as a
universal hero whose life exemplified the highest ideals of
internationalism and universality. Mandela cautiously claimed that the
precise chain of events leading to Machel's death were uncertain and
elusive, and repeated an earlier promise that no stone would be left
unturned to establish the full truth.[2][22][23]
[edit] 1999 monument
Main article: Samora Machel Monument
A memorial was erected at the crash site.
Designed by Mozambican architect, Jose Forjaz, at a cost to the South
African government of 1.5 million Rand (US$ 300,000), the monument
comprises 35 whistling wind pipes to symbolise each of the
lives lost in the air crash. It was inaugurated on January 19, 1999 by Nelson Mandela, his wife Graça, and by President Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique.
[edit] 2006 anniversary
At the 20th anniversary of the crash on October 19, 2006, South
African president, Thabo Mbeki declared the memorial a national
heritage site.[24]
Leading up to the event the Mozambican president Guebuza, who chaired the Mozambican inquiry in 1986,
repeated a commitment to discover the truth about the incident,[25]
while President Mbeki, in his state of the nation address of February
3, 2006, mentioned that a satisfactory explanation was still lacking.[26]
[edit]
Nelson
Mandela's and Graça Machel's accusations
At the Mandela-Machel wedding ceremony on July 18, 1998, Mandela was
however reported to have announced that Samora Machel was murdered,
without reference to the South African board of enquiry's findings.[2]
Graça Machel believes the air crash was no accident and has
dedicated her life to tracking down her late husband's killers. In May
1999, Graça Machel said in an interview on SABC TV's News
Maker programme that she remained convinced the apartheid regime was
responsible, and challenged former foreign minister Pik
Botha to come clean about Samora Machel's death. In reply, Botha
told SABC TV on May 16, 1999 that although he had been one of the first
people on the scene and was called on to identify Machel's body, the
only facts he knew about the crash were the findings of the Margo
Commission:[27]
“
"I totally reject any
suggestion that I could have been a party to a decision of that nature.
It is an extremely sad moment for me. - Pik Botha
”
[edit] Economic impact
A study by Jones and Olken[28]
claims that the crash had immediate wider repercussions for
Mozambique's economy. An annual 7.7% decline in GDP under Machel's communist
nationalisation policies, reverted to growth
averaging 2.4% per annum under the freer, multi-party democracy in the tenure of
his successor, Joaquim Chissano.
[edit] Fiction
The theory that South African agents were involved in the death of
Machel was the basis of a book, Blood Safari (Afrikaans
version was titled "Onsigbaar") by South African author Deon
Meyer.
[edit] References
b
c
d
e
f
Accident description at the Aviation Safety Network. Retrieved
on 2007-12-18.
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
j
k
l
m
Margo, Cecil (1998). Final Postponement,
Reminiscenses of a Crowded Life. Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball
Publishers. pp. 216–231. ISBN 1-86842-071X.
b
c
d
e
f
"Special Investigation into the death of President Samora
Machel". Report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Vol.
2, Chap. 6. 1998. Archived from the original on 2009-07-21. http://www.webcitation.org/5iRpLb2Ia. Retrieved 2009-07-18.
Africa Confidential 27 (23), November 12,
1986
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
j
Fauvet, Paul, et al (2003). Carlos
Cardoso: Telling the Truth in Mozambique. Double Storey.
pp. 155–178. ISBN 1919-930-310.
b
c
d
e
Botha, Pik (October 25, 2006). "Sonder bewyse sal Machel-omstredenheid net voortduur
(Machel controversy to continue in absence of evidence)". Beeld.
p. 19. Archived from the original on 2009-07-21. http://www.webcitation.org/5iRpLCNub. Retrieved 2009-07-12.
b
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f
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Lynch, Des (October 20, 2006). "Die mites oor Machel (The myths around Machel)". Beeld.
p. 17. Archived from the original on 2009-07-21. http://www.webcitation.org/5iRpLxx3f. Retrieved 2009-07-12.
AIM information bulletin, (Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique),
Maputo, Mozambique, 1986-87
b
Gibson, Erika (November 28, 2008). "Machel-ramp: Vlieëniers glo gemuilband (Machel crash:
Pilots said to be muzzled)". Beeld.
p. 18. Archived from the original on 2009-07-31. http://www.webcitation.org/5igmtf57P. Retrieved 2009-07-30.
b
c
d
Dias, Luís Brito (August 28, 2008). "The
Accident at Mbuzini, Sérgio Vieira Ordered Mozambique Airline Pilots to
Remain Silent". Zambeze. p. 2.
Novosselov, Vladimir (surviving crew member), Komsomolskaya Pravada,
November 19, 1986
b
c
Commey, Pusch (January 2003). "Mozambique: Inquiry into Machel's
death reopens". BNet. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5391/is_200301/ai_n21324925/. Retrieved 2009-07-13.
"Parts of Machel's plane wreck given to SA farmers as
gifts". Sapa.
June 16, 1998. Archived from the original on 2009-08-05. http://www.webcitation.org/5io78iZa0. Retrieved 2009-08-02.
"Ex-CCB man in Machel death claim".
Daily Dispatch. http://www.dispatch.co.za/2003/01/13/southafrica/EMACHEL.HTM. Retrieved 2008-10-06.
Robinson, David Alexander. "A Case of Assassination?". University of Cape Town. http://www.africanstudies.uct.ac.za/postamble/vol2-2/assassination.pdf. Retrieved 2008-10-06.
"Former CCB man: How we assassinated a president". Cape
Argus. October 8, 2008. Archived from the original on 2009-08-05. http://www.webcitation.org/5io7Bf4h2. Retrieved 2009-08-02.
"Probe Samora Machel's death - Pik
Botha". Sunday Independent.
http://www.sundayindependent.co.za/?fSectionId=3536&fArticleId=nw20081006154944165C741265. Retrieved 2008-10-06.
Olivier, Annie (January 13, 2003). "Skerpioene ondersoek oud-BSB-man se bewerings oor Machel
(Scorpions to investigate ex-CCB man's claims concerning Machel)". Beeld.
p. 2. Archived from the original on 2009-07-31. http://www.webcitation.org/5igmu1Bxc. Retrieved 2009-07-30.
Kirk, Paul (October 10,
2008), "Machel murder claim ‘a lie’", Citizen, http://www.citizen.co.za/index/article.aspx?pDesc=79767,1,22
"Machel probe to re-open". East Coast Radio. February 9, 2006. http://www.ecr.co.za/content/view/3557/81/. Retrieved 2008-03-29.
Thompson, Christopher (October 20, 2006). "Mozambique seeks new probe into
Machel crash". Mail & Guardian. http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=287207&area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__national/. Retrieved 2008-03-29.
"Mandela's speech at the commemoration of the death of
president Samora Machel". Office of the President, ANC Daily News
Briefing. October 18, 1996. Archived from the original on 2009-07-26. http://www.webcitation.org/5iYYRH7pk. Retrieved 2009-07-22.
van Rensburg, Gallie (September 7, 1993). "Kyk weer na Machel se dood, vra
Mandela (Mandela requests another look at Machel's death)". Beeld. p. 8. http://152.111.1.88/argief/berigte/beeld/1993/09/7/8/3.html. Retrieved 2009-07-30.
South African
government (October 19, 2006). "South Africans, Mozambicans urged
to follow Machel's footsteps". Press release.
http://www.buanews.gov.za/view.php?ID=06102008151001&coll=buanew06.
"Samora Machel remembered", SADC Today
9 (4), October 2006, archived from the original on 2009-07-25, http://www.webcitation.org/5iXTgw3IW, retrieved 2009-07-24
SouthAfrica.info reporter and BuaNews
(October 20, 2006). "Remembering Samora Machel".
SouthAfrica.info. Archived from the original on 2009-07-25. http://www.webcitation.org/5iXTivfLD. Retrieved 2009-07-22.
"Pik rejects Graça's theory on
plane crash". Dispatch
Online. May 17, 1999. http://www.dispatch.co.za/1999/05/17/southafrica/pik.htm. Retrieved 2008-03-28.
Jones, Benjamin F.;
Olken, Benjamin A. (2005), "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth since
World War II", Quarterly Journal of Economics
120 (3): 835–864, archived from the original on 2009-07-21, http://www.webcitation.org/5iRqtFyfN, retrieved 2009-07-18
[edit]
Further
reading and external links
Maputo
Samora Machel death crash. Institut für Afrikanische und Internationale
Studien. http://books.google.com/books?id=Aj7LHgAACAAJ.
death
Michele Ciavarella, http://poliba.academia.edu/micheleciavarella
Editor, Italian Science Debate, www.sciencedebate.it
blogs http://rettorevirtuoso.blogspot.com/
YouTube Channel http://www.youtube.com/user/RettoreVirtuoso
Some photos
Michele Ciavarella, http://poliba.academia.edu/micheleciavarella
Editor, Italian Science Debate, www.sciencedebate.it
blogs http://rettorevirtuoso.blogspot.com/
YouTube Channel http://www.youtube.com/user/RettoreVirtuoso